ITHACA, N.Y. — For those of you who have quickly tired of the slippery ice, howling winds, and bitter wind chill, there’s some light at the end of the tunnel – or rather, some heat. As the storm system continues to move away, a large area of high pressure will build into the region and stall out over the Carolinas, providing unseasonable warmth to close out 2022.

Your Weekly Weather

We’re closing out a frigid holiday weekend following the passage of a powerful storm system across the Great Lakes. More than 200 million people found themselves under winter weather advisories, more than 10,000 flights have been cancelled and at least 34 people have died from storm-related impacts. Buffalo bore some of the worst of this event, with blizzard conditions for multiple days and liable to measure up to some of the worst winter storms in the Queen City’s history.

It is safe to say that the worst of the storm is over. The core of the low is filling (weakening) as it lifts up into the polar latitudes of Northern Quebec and Labrador. As it does, two areas of high pressure, one over the Northern Plain and the other over Lower Mississippi River Valley, will squash a decaying storm system between them and merge over the Southeastern U.S. as one large high pressure system by Tuesday morning. As the large high slowly moves eastward over the following days, its cyclonic (clockwise) flow will usher warmer air into the region, with the days becoming progressively warmer as the week goes on.

However, for the near-term, an icebox it remains. For the remainder of your Sunday night, expect a dry and partly cloudy, albeit frigid night. With westerly winds 10-15 MPH, wind chills will be in the +5 to -5 F range.

Monday will be a largely quiet day, with lake effect snow showers well to the north and west of Tompkins County, though some additional cloud cover is likely to present from the fringes of those lake effect bands. Skies will be mostly cloudy and temperatures will continue to be below normal, in the mid 20s. A more westerly wind may blow a few showers through Tompkins County Monday night into Tuesday morning, though new accumulations should be minimal. Skies will be mostly cloudy with lows in the mid to upper teens and light southwest winds.

Tuesday sees the high pressure system to the southwest enhance its grip, which should help to tamp down the lake effect bands off of Erie and Ontario. Skies will be partly cloudy with light southwest winds, and highs around 30. Tuesday night will see a weak clipper low pass to the north, around the ridge of the high. Current projections show the system staying far enough north that some additional cloud cover is all that is expected. It will be mostly cloudy with light and variable winds and lows in the upper teens.

As the clipper low passes east Wednesday, southwest flow on the backside of the high will be enhanced, and overall southerly flow will increase as the core of the high recenters over the Carolinas. Skies will be partly cloudy with highs around 40. Wednesday night will be dry with partly to mostly cloudy skies, a light south wind, and lows in the upper 20s.

Heading into Thursday, the high strengthens a little, which should enhanced the southerly advection into Tompkins County. Skies will be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 40s, well above normal for this time of year. Thursday night will be mostly cloudy with mild overnight lows in the upper 30s.

A building low pressure storm pressure storm system over the Dakotas will enhanced southerly flow further for Friday. This storm system will be much weaker than the previous bomb cyclone, but it will unsettle the weather for the weekend. It will remain dry Friday but mostly cloudy skies will continue, with highs in the low 50s. Friday night will see a few widely scattered rain showers, though at present the bulk of precipitation looks to initially be to the north. Skies will be mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 30s.

Looking into next weekend, temperatures will continue to be above normal, though I would expect light to moderate rain showers for much of New Year’s Eve, so bring an umbrella if you’ll be attending any celebrations to ring in 2023. Scattered showers are likely both Saturday and Sunday with mostly cloudy to overcast skies and highs in the low to mid 50s both days. Temperatures look to be in the upper 40s sliding back a few degrees into the mid 40s after midnight and the Times Square ball drop.

Graphics courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Extended Forecast

Medium range models continue to show abnormal warmth for the first week of 2023. A pronounced ridge of high pressure over the Eastern U.S. will usher in unusually mild air for the first week of January, with high temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s for highs. More notable is the wet pattern over much of the country, thanks to Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture flows. This showery, rainy spell will create a moist, cloudy environment that will keep low temperatures much above normal, upper 30s and 40s, more than 20-30 F above normal for overnight lows. You’ll be able to put the snow shovel aside for a few days, but you’ll be wearing the rain boots and carrying the umbrella around instead.

Brian Crandall

Brian Crandall reports on housing and development for the Ithaca Voice. He can be reached at bcrandall@ithacavoice.com.