ITHACA, N.Y. — A fairly mild and placid week of weather is in store for Tompkins County, but as a potent, cold air mass moves in next weekend, you’ll want to dig out the heavier coats and scarves if you haven’t already.
Mostly cloudy today with showers possible across NEPA and the Catskills. Tonight will be chilly as temperatures drop into the 30s. A Frost Advisory goes into effect tonight for CNY and the Northern Tier of NEPA. #nywx #pawx pic.twitter.com/KrC00IDdl2— NWS Binghamton (@NWSBinghamton) October 2, 2022
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High pressure over Eastern Canada is preventing the remnants of Hurricane Ian from making further headway into the Northeast, and the bulk of the precipitation is now shifting eastward into the Atlantic with the remnant low of the storm. Further impacts will be limited to just some cloud cover and showers well to the south of Ithaca in Pennsylvania’s Northern Tier.
For the rest of your Sunday, it will be quiet and mostly cloudy. Temperatures will top out a little below normal, in the low 60s in urban Ithaca and around 60 in the outlying areas. It will be chilly tonight as the core of the high retrogrades to the southwest and light northerly flow allows temperatures to fall to the mid 30s for lows. While skies will be partly cloudy, expect some valley fog by sunrise, and some patchy frost in the usual cooler spots.
The high sinks southward Monday, and while Ian’s remnants continue to recede, there will be more generous amounts of sunshine, but otherwise similar to Sunday. Skies will be partly cloudy with highs in the low 60s. Monday night will see partly cloudy skies with lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost once again possible.
Tuesday will be a little warmer as the core of the high shifts eastward into New England, with a secondary high over the Ohio River Valley. Skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 60s. Tuesday night will be partly cloudy, decreasing in coverage as the night goes on, and a little milder, with overnight lows around 40.
Wednesday sees the high shift to making the Ohio River Valley lobe the dominant center of the high. It will be a mild and pleasant day, with sunny skies and highs near 70. Wednesday night will see mostly clear skies with lows in the mid and upper 40s.
Thursday looks to be the last nice day of this quiet spell, as a rather potent low pressure storm system begins to press in from the northwest. Expect increasing clouds with highs in the low 70s. Thursday night will remain dry, with mostly cloudy skies ahead of the low, and lows in the upper 40s.
There’s not a lot of moisture with this storm system, but the cold air behind it is potent. At this time, expect showers shortly sunrise, with more widespread showers in the afternoon and evening Friday. Winds will turn from the south to a gusty, cold northwest breeze by afternoon as cold air begins to flow into the region. Skies will be mostly cloudy with highs around 60. Friday night will see the winds settle down somewhat, but it will remain mostly cloudy and showery with lows in the upper 30s. Temperature profiles Friday night don’t yet support the development of a few…ick, snowflakes…but we can’t completely discount the possibility of a few mixing in overnight in places like Connecticut Hill.
Next weekend will be unseasonably cool if dry. Both Saturday and Sunday will be partly cloudy, but temperature will struggle to break 50 Saturday, and perhaps make it into the mid 50s Sunday. Lows overnight will be in the mid 30s, so frost is likely, but I don’t see a killing frost showing up just yet.
Looking into the second week of October, the large-scale pattern favors a pronounced ridge in the jet stream over the Pacific Northwest, and a trough over the Eastern United States. Temperatures are expected to be below normal for the period. For what it’s worth, it is also expected to be a dry period, so you’ll have plenty of time to start your pre-winter outdoor prep, especially as it feels more like early November than mid-October.