ITHACA, N.Y. — It will be an evening well-suited for barbecues, fireworks/drone shows, or however else you plan to spend time outdoors this holiday weekend. High pressure remains in control through Monday, though some rain moves in later Tuesday with the next storm system.

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>I think we can call this a patriotic forecast for <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/pawx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#pawx</a> <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/nywx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#nywx</a>… great conditions for outdoor activities today and tomorrow (but you may want some sunscreen). Low humidity levels, too, for these next couple of afternoons. Enjoy! 🇺🇸 <a href=”https://t.co/LOsQSS4EhB”>pic.twitter.com/LOsQSS4EhB</a></p>&mdash; NWS Binghamton (@NWSBinghamton) <a href=”https://twitter.com/NWSBinghamton/status/1543536255308247040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>July 3, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

Your Weekly Weather

The center of an area of high pressure is sitting directly overhead this evening, with temperatures in the mid and upper 70s and comfortable humidity across Tompkins County and the greater Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. For those of you with gatherings planned in the park or on the deck tonight, maybe watching one of the few fireworks shows across the region, it will be a pleasant evening. Temperatures will slide back through the 70s and into the upper 60s after sunset with light and variable winds. Skies will be clear overnight with lows in the low 50s.

As the high continues east Monday, temperatures will pick up a few degrees on the rear flank of the high’s clockwise flow, but otherwise the local column of atmosphere should remain stable, with a few clouds building in during the afternoon and evening. Highs will be in the mid 80s. Skies become partly cloudy overnight as moister air is brought into the region, but it will stay with mild lows in the mid 60s.

A low pressure storm system moves in from the Great Lakes Tuesday, and while a few showers will arrive during the late morning and early afternoon, most areas from Ithaca west can expect showers to develop by mid-afternoon, and a little later for those east of Ithaca. It will become mostly cloudy to near overcast by afternoon, though with a southerly breeze enhanced by the low’s counterclockwise circulation, temperatures will make it into the mid and upper 80s, and it will feel very muggy by late in the day with all the rain in the area. There is a limited threat for severe thunderstorms and rainfall-triggered flash flooding Tuesday evening, so keep an eye out for weather alerts if you’ll be outdoors Tuesday. Periods of rain will continue past sunset as the low’s cold front sweeps through, winding down after midnight and fully tapering off by sunrise. Lows will be in the low 60s as drier air begins to work in during the early morning. Overall rainfall amounts Tuesday will be in the 0.25-0.50″ range for most communities.

Canadian high pressure building in from the northwest will bring a return of more stable, less humid air for Wednesday. Expect a quiet day with decreasing clouds, from partly cloudy in the morning to mostly clear by sunset, a light north wind and highs around 80. Wednesday night will host mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 50s.

Thursday has a slight risk for a shower south of Ithaca as a system moves through Ohio and Pennsylvania, but it looks to remain far enough south to not have a major impact here. Most areas will see partly cloudy Thursday with highs in the low 80s. There will be a slight risk for showers after midnight Thursday night with a shortwave passing to the south and a cold frontal boundary passing to the north, though the gap conveniently puts Tompkins County between the two. Apart from an isolated shower well to the north or to the south of Ithaca, most areas will be partly cloudy with lows in the low 60s.

Friday shows the risk of rain continues as the front slowly moves by to the north and the shortwave becomes better organized over the Mid-Atlantic, though the risks are marginal, a few showers but by no means a washout. With a light southwest wind, it will be partly cloudy with highs in the mid 80s, though with all that moisture in the vicinity, it will feel muggy once again. As the systems move eastward, Friday night will be mostly cloudy and dry with lows in the low 60s.

Next weekend is looking seasonable warm and dry as high pressure returns, with partly cloudy skies and highs in and around the low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

Graphics courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Extended Outlook

Looking ahead into mid-July, the medium-range outlook calls for a pronounced ridge in the jet stream over the Central United States, likely the return of a scorching “heat dome” over Texas, and a ridge of warmer-than-normal air over the Western United States as well. Downstream troughing will create near to slightly-below normal temperatures for the Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as slightly-above normal chances for rain during the period.

Brian Crandall

Brian Crandall reports on housing and development for the Ithaca Voice. He can be reached at bcrandall@ithacavoice.com.