ITHACA, N.Y. — As far as the weather goes, it’s hard to ask for a nice Father’s Day. Sunny skies, temperatures in the mid 60s, and a northwest breeze make for pretty decent weather for outdoor barbecues, picnics, or a sojourn in the hammock. Perhaps it’s a tad chilly in the shade, but overall, it’s a great day to be outdoors.

This unseasonable coolness shouldn’t last much longer. As the high shifts east, southerly flow will commence, and then a warm front mid-week will usher in hotter and more humid air for those who prefer a more summery feel. Apart from Tuesday and Wednesday, chances for new rainfall will be limited.

Your Weekly Weather

It’s a sunny if breezy and cool Sunday for June and your Father’s Day celebrations. High pressure over the Western Great Lakes is providing for dry and stable conditions, but also a northwest wind that is helping to keep temperatures 10-15 degrees below average across Upstate New York.

The rest of your Sunday will be quiet, though you’ll want a jacket if you’ll be outdoors tonight. With only a few passing clouds, lows will settle into mid 40s – and for the record, frost risks should be minimal because dewpoints are only slightly lower, in the low 40s.

The high shifts southeastward for your Juneteenth Monday holiday, resulting in weaker northwesterly flow, and from a lower and warmer latitude at that. Expect mostly sunny skies, with a few high clouds encroaching later in the day. Highs will still a touch below normal, in the mid 70s in Ithaca, and slightly cooler on the hilltops. A few showers are likely to move in after midnight west of Ithaca and closer to sunrise to the east as a warm front associated with a Canadian low begins to move into Tompkins County. These will be widely scattered, and new rainfall amounts will be minimal. Skies will become increasingly cloudy towards sunrise with lows in the mid 50s.

With the front cresting over the ridge of high pressure Tuesday, it will be an unsettled day for your first day of astronomical summer, but by no means a washout. A few scattered showers are expected in the area, with a thunderstorm or two in the mix for later in the day, but these will be brief and skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Highs Tuesday will make it into the low 80s, and with those showers, it will feel a touch on the muggy side. Tuesday night will see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms as that front slowly moves eastward, with a rather humid overnight with partly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 60s.

Wednesday sees a shortwave (pulse of instability) take advantage of the frontal trough to traverse the region, so there will be greater chances for showers and thunderstorms during the day, with 0.1-0.25″ inches of rain likely. It will be humid, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 80s. Wednesday night sees the risk for showers decrease as the front and the shortwave head east, with drier conditions after midnight and mostly cloudy skies with lows in the low 60s.

There are some attempts in models to create a coastal cutoff low off of Long Island Thursday, but with high pressure working in from the west, it looks like it will be too far away to impact Ithaca’s weather, though some divergence in forecast models means we’ll want to keep an eye on it. For now, expect a partly cloudy day with a touch of humid air and highs in the upper 70s. Thursday night looks to be dry with partly cloudy skies and lows around 60.

The high shifts southeastward for Friday, which will allow somewhat warmer flow out of thee west and southwest. Expect mostly sunny skies with dewpoints in the low 60s, rather humid but not stifling, and highs in the mid 80s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible. Friday night will be dry with partly cloudy skies and lows in the low 60s.

Looking into next weekend, expect hot, dry, and a touch on the muggy side. Both Saturday and Sunday will be partly to mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s.

Graphics courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Extended Outlook

Looking ahead towards the end of the month and the start of July, the large scale pattern favors a jet stream ridge over much of the United States, with some troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast. Temperatures will be near seasonable values for the period, with precipitation near to slightly above normal in the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Above normal precipitation is likely in the Southwest, a region that desperately needs the rain, and unseasonable heat in the Deep South will create swampy humid conditions in parts of the Southeast.

Brian Crandall

Brian Crandall reports on housing and development for the Ithaca Voice. He can be reached at bcrandall@ithacavoice.com.