ITHACA, N.Y. — For those of you who like it when Mother Nature cranks up the thermostat, the week ahead will be nothing short of a delight. Temperatures will progressively warm during the week, but the humidity will lage by at least a few days, resulting in a fairly comfortable dry heat until next weekend. However, there is little chance of rain in the forecast for the next several days, so if you have plants with low drought tolerance or well water issues, take note and plan accordingly.
It’s been abnormally dry the past 2 weeks across portions of western and central NY. The dry pattern is expected to continue this week with maybe some relief by the weekend or early next week. Image courtesy of @NortheastRCC pic.twitter.com/xOjmFkKqx9
— NWS Binghamton (@NWSBinghamton) June 14, 2020
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At present, the defining feature of our weather is a large area of high pressure centered over Quebec. The core is elongated in a SW-NE elliptical shape, so the clockwise circulation of the high is tapping into air from our northeast, towards Vermont and Montreal, and dragging it down to here. This air is a little more mild than the direct flow from northern Canada we saw on Saturday, but it still makes for a rather cool and dry airmass by June standards.
Nothing is expected to develop in the near future to jostle this high pressure system, and with weak jet stream flow (which is normal for the summer months), it’s just going to sit in place, slowly sinking southward over the coming days. This will mean an ever more southerly flow of air and warming temperatures. It will also keep our local column of atmosphere stable and dry, though as that high moves south it’ll wrap ever more humid air into its flow.
As summer weather goes, it’s hard to find a better stretch than the one we’re in for the next few days – comfortable, warm but not hot, and abundant sunshine with only occasional fair weather clouds bubbling up with the heat of the day. By the end of the week, the high will be tapping into air from the Deep South, and a more typical hazy, hot and humid summer pattern will prevail, if mostly rain-free aside from the usual pop-up showers and thunderstorms.
For the rest of today, expect a dry and pleasant evening as temperature slowly recede from highs in the upper 60s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Tonight will see skies clear out somewhat with the loss of diurnal heating, with a light northeast breeze and lows falling into the upper 40s around the lake, and mid 40s in the outlying areas.
Monday will be somewhat warmer as the high sinks to the southeast towards New England, and that will result in a warmer flow of air into the Southern Tier. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with partly cloudy skies. Monday night will host partly cloudy skies with lows around 50 °F.
For Tuesday, the high retrogrades slightly and practically parks itself directly overhead, and with even warmer air wrapped into its circulation, temperatures will climb a little higher, into the low 80s with mostly clear skies. During this time, dewpoints should remain in the low to mid 50s, so it should still feel comfortable. Tuesday night will be mostly clear with lows in the mid 50s.
The high sinks a little further south for Wednesday, and once again temperatures will climb higher with warmer air being wrapped into its circulation. Highs will climb into the mid and upper 80s with mostly sunny skies, and dewpoints will climb a few degrees to around 60 °F, which is the rule-of-thumb for when it starts to perceptibly feel humid. Wednesday night will see mostly clear skies with lows in the upper 50s.
Thursday sees the high shift to the southeast into the Atlantic off Long Island, and that will shift the airmasses within the high’s clockwise flow to a more humid tap from the southeastern United States. It won’t feel gross out, but it’ll feel rather humid, low-mid 60s for dewpoints. Temperatures will top our around 90 °F with partly cloudy skies, though with this higher humidity, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may pop up late Thursday afternoon and evening. Thursday night will be partly cloudy and in the mid 60s.
Friday will be more typical of your summer “hazy, hot and humid” weather, as dewpoints finally climb into the upper 60s, making it feel muggy to be outdoors. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 °F. Partly cloudy skies will give way to scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms late in the day Friday. Friday night will be partly cloudy and humid, with lows in the mid 60s.
The weekend is looking to be a continuation of the hazy/hot/humid pattern. Saturday and Sunday with both be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with convective showers and thunderstorms in the later PM hours, and partly cloudy skies otherwise. Saturday and Sunday night will be partly cloudy as evening storms taper off, with lows in the upper 60s.
Looking ahead into the last third of the month and the start of astronomical summer, the warmer than normal conditions are expected to continue, though no severe heat waves are expected. The weather pattern is expected to shift to a somewhat wetter large-scale setup, near to perhaps a little above normal as some models indicate a persistent jet stream trough near the Missisissippi River Valley during late June, which could both guide larger low-pressure storm systems through the mid-Atlantic, and provide the instability needed for the development of pop-up storms.
Some indications such a very hot and very wet pattern could develop in July, but we’re still too far out to really get a good grasp on the finer details of how that might play out.