ITHACA, N.Y. — Break out the short sleeves and airy outfits. With summer officially here, it’s going to feel like it, with temperatures into the 80s and some muggy days ahead as we alternative between sunny days, and muggy, stormy periods.

Precipitation, mean sea level pressure and 1000-500 mb thickness (temperature proxy) for 8 AM Tuesday morning. An area of low pressure over the upper Great Lakes will send a frontal boundary through the area, resulting in rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. GFS Model output courtesy tropicaltidbits.com.

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The high pressure and dry, pleasant conditions that have dominated our weather over the weekend should hang around for one more day before the next storm system moves in late Monday evening. Sunday night will be quiet, with mostly clear skies and lows in the mid 50s with comfortable humidity, a great night to sleep with the window open.

Monday starts off mostly clear, but as the next system barrels through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, a warm front associated with the system will begin to push in from the west. During the day, it will be fairly comfortable in the morning, but turning rather muggy in the afternoon as the southerly winds turn to the west and begin to tap into some of the moisture ahead of the front. Highs will be in the low 80s, with mostly cloudy skies by early evening. Showers will begin to move into Tompkins County by around 7 PM, and rain will spread across the area during the late evening hours as the front passes through, with most places getting some rain by midnight. 12 AM – 6 AM will see the bulk of precipitation, with steadier rains in the 3-5 AM timeframe. Just make sure you have an umbrella if you’re out after dark. With the clouds and high humidity, temperatures won’t drop much, only into the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday morning’s commute will be a wet one, though the rain should taper off after 8 AM as the front clears our region. Clouds will decrease throughout the day, but expect it to be fairly humid, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and a high in the low 80s, which will feel a bit warmer (heat index) thanks to the humidity. The air will remain unstable and moist enough for some pop-up showers or weak thunderstorms, but nothing widespread is expected. Conditions will stabilize as drier air builds in from the west, so Tuesday night should be quiet, with a few passing clouds, lower humidity, and lows in the low 60s in the hills, and mid 60s in the urbanized areas

Wednesday will be partly cloudy, with some convective rain showers possible as a weak wave of instability passes aloft – the storm system from Monday night will park itself over northern Ontario, Its core is like the hub of a wheel, and this wave is one of its spokes, spinning counterclockwise around it with us in its path. Highs will be in the low 80s, and a touch on the muggy side. Wednesday night will be partly cloudy, a few scattered showers east of Ithaca, and lows in the low 60s.

Thursday is looking quiet as high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will build northward and run our weather for the day. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 80s. Thursday night will be mostly clear with a low in the low 60s.

For Friday, another wave-slash-spoke of energy will swing through the region thanks to the Canadian low, and that will trigger around round of showers and thunderstorms. These will be cellular in nature, so don’t expect a washout, but be ready for a quick downpour. Outside of the rain, expect partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 80s. Expect the showers to continue through Friday night, with mostly cloudy skies otherwise and a low in the low 60s.

The weekend is looking unsettled, as the models suggest the low will remain in place and continue to take rainy swings at us, or it may even shift southward a bit, which would open us up to even more unsettled, stormy conditions. In either case, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with pop-up rain showers and thunderstorms for both Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the upper 70s Saturday and mid 70s Sunday, and lows around 60 °F.

Extended Outlook

As one of my old grad school professors, “it’s perfectly normal for the weather to be abnormal”. Counterpoint, it’s rather abnormal for the weather to be normal. Temperatures and precipitation should stay around normal for the first week or so of July, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, as a prominent ridge sets itself up over the northern Great Plains, but drops off in amplitude before its dome of hotter air can reach the northeast. With normal high temperatures being in the upper 70s this time of the year, and lows in the mid 50s, that actually sounds quite nice.

Brian Crandall

Brian Crandall reports on housing and development for the Ithaca Voice. He can be reached at bcrandall@ithacavoice.com.