ITHACA, N.Y. — Tomorrow would be a good day to stock up on ice cream and sunscreen. Lovers of summer heat and humidity will be delighted this week as temperatures climb and dewpoints rise later in the week, resulting in some muggy conditions and temperatures flirting with the 90 °F mark as we head into the weekend.

Precipitation, mean sea level pressure and 1000-500 mb thickness (temperature proxy) for 2 PM Thursday afternoon. An area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast will pump, hot humid air into the region for the 4th of July holiday.

Your Weekly Weather

With the upper level low shifting off to the east, high pressure centered over Ohio and Pennsylvania will provide a sunny, seasonably warm start to the week. If you’re *not* a fan of hot and humid, this will be your day to take care of your outdoor activities.

For Sunday night, expect mostly clear skies and comfortable sleeping weather, with a low in the mid 50s. If you have a really early morning commute, say 5-7 AM, there could be some valley fog in the usual spots, so budget a couple extra minutes for your morning drive.

Monday will start off mostly clear, but by early afternoon, cloud cover will increase as weak wave of instability aloft and associated surface front push in from the northwest. Temperatures will top out around 80 °F. By Monday night, the front will be sweeping through Tompkins County, and the chance for some light to moderate rain will persist through Tuesday morning. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, and with that extra bit of cloud cover, lows will be tad warmer Monday night, bottoming out around 60 °F.

Tuesday will be mostly cloudy as the weak front slowly passes southeastward. Chances of rain should diminish for Trumansburg and locales northwest of Ithaca before noon, while Caroline, Danby and points south and southeast of Ithaca will see some lingering showers through the early afternoon. With rain in the vicinity, it will be rather muggy, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and a high temperature in the low 80s, though the high humidity means it will feel a little warmer than that. The front should be well out of our area by Tuesday night, with lows in the low 60s and partly cloudy skies, and a touch on the humid side for those who like to sleep with their windows open.

The second half of the week will be hotter and more humid. We’ll be on the backside of a high pressure system to the southeast, and with its clockwise flow, a tap of moist, hot air from the southwest will raise the temperature and dewpoint, and several decaying frontal boundaries will provide weak but potentially destabilizing energy into the local atmosphere. The worst of the heat and humidity looks to be Thursday, the 4th of July holiday. With actual temperatures near or a bit above 90 °F, and a dewpoint in the low to mid 70s, it’s going to feel downright steamy outside, and the heat index (how the air feels) will easily be in the mid to upper 90s, and near 100 °F in Ithaca’s urban core. Heat Advisories may be issued, and we’ll keep you posted. Regardless, if you’re going to a party on the 4th, dress light, drink cool beverages (preferably some water between the adult drinks, as alcohol promotes dehydration), and turn on a fan or the air conditioner when indoors.

For Wednesday, expect partly cloudy skies, the chance for some pop-up showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, and a high in the mid 80s with humid conditions. Wednesday night will be rather humid, with partly cloudy skies, a few isolated showers, and a low in the mid 60s.

Thursday, as discussed above temperatures will climb to around 90 °F but feel warmer given the tropical humidity we’ll be experiencing. The chance for some scattered pop-up rain showers or thunderstorms will persist through the day and evening, so while not widespread, keep an eye out for lightning (or ears for thunder, if you can distinguish it from the fireworks) during your evening festivities. Thursday night will be a night to sleep with the windows closed, as muggy conditions prevail and temperatures stay in the upper 60s with mostly cloudy skies and some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday will be much the same if a hair cooler, with partly cloudy skies, some pop-up showers and storms throughout the day, and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with humid conditions that will make it feel more like the low to mid 90s.Friday night will be partly cloudy and humid with lows in the upper 60s.

A cool front seems likely to swing through Saturday night into Sunday, so while Saturday will be humid and in the mid 80s with pop-up storms and otherwise partly cloudy skies, Sunday will be a bit drier and cooler, with mostly sunny skies and highs near 80 °F.

Graphic courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Extended Outlook

With the persistence of a Bermuda High off the Atlantic Coast, conditions into the second week of July are likely to be a touch on the warm and wet side as warmer air is advected northward by the high’s clockwise flow, and oceanic moisture gets caught up in the circulation and allows for some heavy rains when unstable conditions are present and thunderstorms develop. Overall, expect a fairly normal summer pattern of heat and humidity until at least the middle of the month, when it looks like we might take a turn to the cooler side.

Brian Crandall

Brian Crandall reports on housing and development for the Ithaca Voice. He can be reached at bcrandall@ithacavoice.com.