ITHACA, N.Y. — Consider today a meteorological prelude to the week ahead. Apart from the daylight hours Tuesday, there is literally rain or the chance of rain, day or night, through next weekend. Oh boy, the umbrella sellers are going to make bank.

9:08 PM Radar screenshot courtesy of NWS Binghamton.

Your Weekly Weather

Let’s start this off with a quick note towards the advancing squall line currently located over the Western part of the state near Buffalo. The squall line is still on track to pass through here around midnight and poses a risk for damaging winds, flash flooding, and possibly hail and embedded tornadoes. Read more about that from the earlier alert here.

While that will dominate our short term weather concerns, let’s take a look at the rest of the week ahead. At present, a potent area of low pressure is moving northeastward from Ohio, through Western Pennsylvania and into Upstate New York. Warm air surged ahead of it on Sunday evening thanks to a strong counterclockwise circulation, but as it pushes through upstate, the cold front will sweep in and bring temperatures back down.

For tonight, be mindful of severe weather between 11 and 1 AM, with temperatures falling from the low 60s to low 50s by morning. Monday will be a blustery, raw day as cold air pours down from the northwest behind the low. Expect cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and gusty winds of 30-35 MPH, as temperatures continue to fall from the low 50s to low 40s by evening. A few flurries are possible on the hills east of Ithaca, but no accumulations are expected. Monday night should be fairly quiet as the showers taper off shortly after sunset, with clearing skies, breezy conditions and lows in the mid 30s.

Tuesday will be quiet as high pressure briefly builds into the region. Expect partly cloudy skies during the day, with highs in the mid 50s. Clouds will build in during the afternoon as a warm front attempts to push through the region, and ends up stalling out. The moisture included with the warmer air of the front will create unsettled conditions and some scattered rain showers Tuesday night, with mostly cloudy skies otherwise, and lows in the low 40s.

Wednesday will continue to be unsettled as the front nudges through Tompkins County, but refuses to budge much further.  Highs will be around 60 °F with mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain showers. Wednesday night will be mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers, with lows in the upper 40s.

By Thursday morning, the front should have moved far enough north to allow much warmer air to flow into the region, and so it’ll be markedly warmer during the day. Chances for rain should be fairly limited (~30%, higher north of Ithaca), and for most it will be a mostly cloudy day with highs in the upper 60s. Thursday night will be mild as southerly flow continues ahead of the next storm system, and lows will be in the upper 50s.

Friday’s a day you’ll want an umbrella handy, as the next storm system strengthens over the Ohio River Valley, not unlike the storm system passing through now. As the Friday storm strengthens, its southerly flow will increase, and so highs will get into the low 70s, but it will be wet and breezy, with wind gusts of 30 MPH and intermittent periods of rain. The atmosphere will be unstable and capable of generating strong to severe thunderstorms from Friday afternoon and into the evening, so it’s something to keep a close eye on.

After the front passes, the system appears to stall and linger in the northeast for the weekend before finally exiting late Sunday. For Friday night, expect periods of rain and lows in the mid 50s. Saturday will be mostly cloudy with frequent rain showers and highs in the low 60s. Cooler air should begin to filter in Saturday night, with rain showers and lows in the low 40s, and Sunday will be partly cloudy with some lingering showers and highs in the upper 50s.

Graphic courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Extended Outlook

Looking into the second half of April, it’s looking rather warm and wet, with a pronounced ridge in the jet stream setting itself up over the Northeastern United States, and the warm air that will be advected poleward will also be moist and capable of creating some substantial rainfall amounts. The tail end of the month is looking more normal temperature-wise and drier, so with any hope all these April showers will lead to some lovely May flowers. Or so we can hope.

Brian Crandall

Brian Crandall reports on housing and development for the Ithaca Voice. He can be reached at bcrandall@ithacavoice.com.