ITHACA, N.Y. — Cool as a corpse, dry as a mummy’s tomb. Winds with the chorus of a thousand infernal souls. That’s the forecast for tonight.

Today is a seasonably chilly day, not helped by the presence of strong winds. Reports of wind gusts as high as 40 MPH have been received from near the airport and out in Slaterville Springs. The stiff westerly winds will settle down a bit as the day’s heating fades after sunset, but for those going as a “naughty” anything tonight, bring the extra layer for reasons other than modesty; temperature will be falling through the 40s and into the 30s as the night progresses. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s in urban Ithaca, but may dip below freezing in the suburbs, and likely upper 20s up on the hills.

On the bright side, it’s certainly better than last weekend’s weather. Much of the area received 2 to 4 inches of rain from the complex and intense storm system that passed over the Northeast, combined potent frontal energy with tropical moisture, including the remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe. In a rather strange setup, while temperatures here and areas east hovered in the 40s Sunday, temperatures in Albany, then in the warm sector of the storm, reached as high as 70 degrees. It was warmer in Albany than Atlanta.

The county airport reported 3.55″ of liquid sunshine, and wind gusts of 100 MPH were recorded at the summit of Whiteface Mountain in the Adirondacks. Parts of the state experienced barometric pressures in the 970s and 980s, values typically seen with hurricanes and severe Nor’easters. With deep low pressure comes a steep pressure gradient, and with a steep pressure gradient comes strong winds. Power outages could be found throughout the Northeast.

The weather is going become more unsettled, but not anything to really worry about as we continue through the work week. A weak shortwave trough coming from the southwest will push moisture into the region on the heels of the departing high pressure area, resulting in clouds and eventually some rain by late Wednesday afternoon and evening. With dry air still lingering, some of the rain will evaporate as it falls, which creates a cooling effect. Temperatures won’t be getting out of the mid-40s Wednesday. However the cloud cover and incoming milder air will keep low temperatures Wednesday in the upper 30s to low 40s, with temperatures rising overnight to near 50 by daybreak. Total rainfall amounts will be less than half an inch.

GFS forecast model precipitation, sea level pressure and 1000-500mb thickness (temperature proxy) for 8 PM Wednesday. Warm air and rain will be moving in from the south as a low pressure area passes northwestward. Model image courtesy tropicaltidbits.com.

Thursday and Friday are looking to be cloudy and showery as additional pulses of showers pass over the region with waves of energy/instability riding along the troughs of the low pressure system. But hey, it will be mild for November, with temperatures getting into the low 60s in most places, and only falling back into the 50s Thursday night. As the system slowly plods along, a cold front will help clear out any remaining showers and most of the clouds, but temperatures will be seasonably cool if sunny for Saturday. Longer-term, rain showers look to make a return, but temperatures will perk up into the 50s and perhaps the 60s early next week.

For the record, since we’re getting to that time of year – the chance of snow in the next seven days is practically zero. Not looking so good for the next couple of weeks either, as the NOAA Climate Prediction Center expects local temperatures to average well above normal for the first half of November.

Brian Crandall

Brian Crandall reports on housing and development for the Ithaca Voice. He can be reached at bcrandall@ithacavoice.com.